To see the latest real estate trend charts from JANUARY 2022 to SEPTEMBER 2023 for Snohomish County, please check out my Housing Market & Economic Data page which offers charts that are updated on the first of each month.
The following data and charts represent monthly Snohomish County real estate trends from January 2022 to SEPTEMBER 2023.
1. Snohomish County Real Estate Trend - Average Sales Price
For September 2023, the average sales price increased to $767,000, from August's number of $760,000 for Snohomish County.
Well, last month I stated we were officially in the "slow season", and thus why we witnessed the price decrease from July to August. I'm somewhat surprised to see the average sale price increase from August to September, however one thing to keep in mind is that the sale prices we're seeing now are 30 to 60 days old. So the above average sales price is calculated from offer and acceptance agreements that occurred in July and August.
Also, this is a very strange and dynamic market, so it's quite challenging to predict the month to month changes.
With that said, price action will also continue to be affected by higher interest rates. IF rates where to drop, we could actually see an uptick in sale / purchase activity and prices upward, even during the historically fall / winter slow season. However, it does not seem we'll see any significant interest rate reductions in the foreseeable future.
It's important to keep any eye on 10 year treasury rates which directly influence mortgage rates. These 10 year rates are representative of the market rates and current and expected Fed interest rate hikes. The hope is that the Fed is nearing the end of their interest rate increase cycle with possibly one more late this year or into early next year.
To review the most recent trend data, please check out the Housing Data page here.
Average sales prices is a lagging indicator. These prices in most cases were agreed to one to two months ago (when an offer was accepted). Additionally, the fall and winter months are historically slower and prices tend to decline, and the late winter and spring (February through May), prices tend to rise. During the summer months prices tend to stabilize however will trend lower as we get closer to children heading back to school and the fall months.
2. Average Days on Market
Average Days on Market (DoM) indicates how many days a house is listed for sale (“on the market”) before an offer is accepted. When Days on Market increases, it indicates home buying demand is softening. This normally result in less offers, more buyer contingencies, increased housing supply, and ultimately, decreasing home prices.
September 2023 saw another increase to 17 days (from 14 days). No surprises here as mortgage rates have continued to increase, and home prices remain elevated.
"Seasonality" is another factor. - generally speaking, late February to late May are the highest demand months for buyers (and when most sellers try to list), and thus Days on Market tends to be lower (houses sell much quicker). As we get into late summer and head toward fall, it's quite normal to see Days on Market trend upward.
To review the most recent trend data, please check out the Housing Data page here.
If you're looking to buy, you should be rooting for the Days on Market to be around 30 to 40 to ensure a more balanced market (where sellers don't have all the leverage).
3. Pending Sales
Pending Sales can be a leading indicator of what home sales will be within the next 30 to 60 days (the average time to close on a home once an offer has been accepted). Not all pending sales will close, however on average, 80% make it through closing and become a finalized home sale.
For September 2023, Pending Sales were 403. A decrease from August 2023 for Snohomish County.
For some perspective of where we're at in the current market compared to just last year (you can also see this on the trend chart here), in August of 2022, there were 655 pending sales, well over 200 more than this year. People willing and able to list homes for sale is much lower, thus inventory is much lower and why prices have remain elevated, even in such a high interest rate environment. People are hesitant to list unless they have to (work, illness, divorce, death, etc) or are downsizing or moving to a lower cost region. To buy a comparable or larger home in the same area that you currently reside will result in a much larger monthly mortgage payment since mortgage rates are so high. The only way to equalize the payment is if you have additional funds to put toward the down payment, and/or buy down the mortgage interest rate.
To review the most recent trend data, please check out the Housing Data page here.
4. Quantity of Homes For Sale (in MLS)
This metric indicates how many homes are listed for sale within the MLS in Snohomish County. It’s also referred to as housing inventory or supply.
For September 2023, there were 457 homes listed for sale. This was a sizeable increase from August 2023, but still historically low, and again, why home prices (and affordability) remain so high. For reference, we peaked in July 2022 with 1,089 homes for sale on the MLS.
Overall, the current number of homes for sale is still historically low. The average number of homes for sale at any one time in Snohomish County over the past 10 years is about 700. The drastic decline directly correlates to sustained higher mortgage rates, and therefore "home affordability". This affects both builders and home owners considering to build or sell, respectively.
To review the most recent trend data, please check out the Housing Data page here.
Along with higher mortgage rates, the lack of home supply is the main culprit to home prices remaining elevated. This is Econ 101 - if there were more homes for sale (supply) then demand would lessen, and help drive down home prices, ultimately improving affordability.
Another major factor is that previously owned homes for sale is very low due to the mortgage lock-in effect.
5. New Listings
The New Listings data can help shed light on the health of our local housing market and whether we're trending toward a more healthy and balanced market relative to housing inventory / supply.
New listings is also influenced by the time of year - the peak season to list a home for sale is generally from about February to May.
To review the most recent trend data, please check out the Housing Data page here.
For September 2023, new listing were at 480, a sizable decrease from 561 in August.
The decrease is understandable based on the same logic I've stated several other times - people are unwilling or unable to move due to the low mortgage rate and payment they have.
6. Average Percent of Last List Price
This chart indicates the final sales price of a home over or under the original list price on the MLS. As you can see, Snohomish County hit a peak in March 2022 of 115%. This means, on average, in Snohomish County, homes were selling for 15% above the listed price. Example: A home was listed for sale at $700,000 and sold for $805,000.
For September 2023, the sales price dropped 1% to 99.4% of the original asking price. This still indicates a relatively strong seller's market. Nonetheless, it's trending downward, as July 2023, single family homes sold for 1.4% above the original listing price on average. This is the first month since March 2023 that we're now under asking price on average. So buyers, this is something to be aware of and consider when looking for a home to purchase.
I'm predicting we'll continue to see this number decrease as we head deeper into fall and winter.... BUT if mortgage rates reverse course that could alter the dynamic.
To review the most recent trend data, please check out the Housing Data page here.
7. Average Shows per Listing
The average number of people physically visiting and viewing homes for sale with a real estate agent.
Average shows per listing dropped again - September was 7, down from 8 in July.
Again, no surprise here as we transition out of the peak selling season into fall.
To review the most recent trend data, please check out the Housing Data page here.
Further house showing data details for all regions of US available here from ShowingTime.com
8. Mortgage Application Data
Another key (and more real-time) metric to monitor the health of the housing market, as well as what we may see in the future, is Mortgage Application Data. This data (from previous week) tells us how many people are applying for a mortgage in preparation for a home purchase.
New data is released every Wednesday, 7:00AM (PST). You can learn more at MBA.org as well as subscribe to their weekly email so you don't miss a beat!
This past week's data (10/4), had a decrease in mortgage applications of 6%! WOW! but that's what happens when mortgage rates are nearing 8% (and for many without good credit, already in the 8% range). Mortgage rates peaked at 7.81% on October 6th, which was the highest mortgage rate since about October 2000!
To gain a broader sense on the health of our local housing market and economy, following is some data and perspective on unemployment data along with new single family home construction permits. Such data can show signals and trends on the health of the economy, and ultimately the housing market.
9. Housing Affordability - Snohomish County
Housing Affordability has been decreasing since the start of 2021. Affordability has worsened recently due to continued high home prices coupled with mortgage interest rates that have doubled from the lows in 2020 and 2021.
The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) is updated quarterly and uses three key variables:
Median Home Prices
Median Household Income
Mortgage payment Cost (and assumes a 20% down payment).
Per the AWB Institute, the HAI is calculated by the Center for Real Estate Research (WCRER) at the University of Washington. The HAI helps illustrate the ability (or inability) of middle-income households to make a mortgage payment on a median priced home.
"Affordable" in the space of this index equates to a household not paying more that 25% of their income toward the mortgage (principal and interest only).
A Housing Affordability Index of 100 is considered "affordable" (and a mortgage payment is exactly 25% of income). Below 100 is considered less affordable (or not affordable as you sink toward 0). Above 100 is considered more affordable.
The Housing Affordability Index data and chart has not been updated with Quarter 2 data, but it can be found in their data source from the University of Washington's Center for Real Estate Research.
The latest data from Quarter 2, 2023 at 60.96 indicates worsening home affordability within Snohomish County (and many other counties) due to rising interest rates, and home prices that are not budging due to lack of supply.
For reference, the Q1 2023 factor was 68.6 which was up (more affordable) from Q4 2022 of 65.2.
The average statewide Housing Affordability Index is at 57.2. So relatively speaking, Snohomish County is more affordable than many other regions. I suspect this has something to do with increasing wages (including folks moving from Seattle and Bellevue to Snohomish County) which helps maintain or improve home affordability. Two examples to the south and north of Snohomish County: King County is at 56.4 and Skagit County is at 51.3.
Last Updated December 2022. Source: AWB Institute
University of Washington - Center For Real Estate Research
10. Mortgage Rates
The following trend chart from Mortgage News Daily shows the 30 year fixed mortgage rates over the previous 12 months.
30 year mortgage rates have been hovering in the mid to high 7% since mid-September and just last week on October 6th, hit a peak of 7.81%.
It's unknown at this point when (or if) mortgage rates will trend back down toward 4 percent - heck 5% or 6% sound good now based on where we're at! Much will depend on inflation and the Fed's action to combat it with the Federal Funds Rate and how the bond and therefore mortgage markets react.
Higher mortgage interest rates directly affect home affordability and therefore housing supply and prices - no doubt a very important metric to monitor if you're looking to buy, sell, or refinance.
Average mortgage rate trend data for 30 year fixed mortgage over the last 12 months - October 6, 2022 to October 6, 2023:

Source: Mortgage News Daily
Unemployment
This data is provided monthly by the Washington State Employment Security Department, and has a two month lag.
August 2023 unemployment data bumped up again to 3.7% which is up from July at 3.6%.
According to the Fed, they would like the national unemployment rate reach at least 4%, as they feel this will slow the economy and help curb inflation. However, this does not mean the Snohomish County Unemployment will hit that mark, or be immune from going beyond 4%.
As of July 2023, Snohomish County Unemployment was at 3.6%
Previous Months: July 2023 = 3.6%, June 2023 = 3.4%, May 2023 = 3.2%, April 2023 = 2.7%, March 2023 = 2.5%, February 2023 = 2.6%, January 2023 = 3.7%, December 2022 = 3.2%, November 2022 = 3.1%, October 2022 = 3.3%, September 2022 = 3.3%, August 2022 = 3.4%, July 2022 = 3.3%, June 2022 = 3.1%, May 2022 = 2.9%, April 2022 = 2.3%)
Source: esd.wa.gov
New Residential Housing Permits
This data is not provided by county, but rather metropolitan area. In the case of Snohomish County, I’m relying on the “Seattle Metro Area” which is Snohomish, King, and Pierce County data.
Residential housing permits authorize new housing units to be built, but does not indicate if construction has started, or whether it will ever start, or complete (see below for a national and regional perspective on "Starts" and "Completions"). Data from the US Census Bureau has a two month lag.
Seattle Metro area as of August 2023, new housing permits for Single Family Residential (this is 1 unit, also denoted as "SFR"): 529 permits issued
July = 489, June = 596, May 2023 = 616, April 2023 = 500, March 2023 = 515, February 2023 = 352, January 2023 = 359, December 2022 = 364, November 2022 = 357, October 2022 = 427, September 2022 = 459, August 2022 = 611, July 2022 = 564, June 2022 = 649
Year to date there have been 3,956 SFR permits issued (2022 total = 7,037). Total SFR permits issued for Seattle Metro area through August 2023 is the 34th highest compared to the other 384 major cities and metro areas monitored.
The top US market for the most New Residential Housing Permits (1 unit) in August 2023 is still the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro area with 4,108 new single family housing permits.
The lowest US markets for the most New Residential Housing Permits in August 2023 was Elmira, NY and Fairbanks, AK at 1.
For national and regional data and trends on Housing Permits, Starts, and Completions, check out this summary from the US Census Bureau on Monthly New Residential Construction. Source: United States Census Bureau
Additional Reading
For additional reading and market insight, check out the following resources. The data is national, and not localized to the Seattle Metro area. Nonetheless, this is great information to consider in a comprehensive analysis to gain a better understanding of the current, and future health of housing markets - locally, regionally, and nationally.
Home Mortgage Application (and refinance) data. This weekly survey data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) provides a forward looking indicator on the housing market by examining the number of people applying for home mortgage loans. The numbers are released weekly on Wednesday morning. Tip: Scroll down about halfway on the Mortgage Application Survey page to find the current, as well as previous releases.
NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is a monthly survey based on responses from NAHB member home builders focused on new single-family residential homes. The survey solicits builders' sentiment on the current housing market, as well as their take on the single family housing market looking outward six months. The survey also provides home traffic numbers. The data provides both a national and regional breakout.
That's A Wrap for September 2023!
I hope this monthly snapshot provides useful and relevant information, trends, and opinion about our local Snohomish County real estate market and economy.
Please let me know in the below comments (or email) if this information is helpful and if you’d like to continue to see it monthly.
If you have any feedback I’d love to hear your thoughts. For those interested, I can also pull data beyond Snohomish County, or drill down by zip code or even neighborhood if you're looking for additional or more specific data.
Thank you for taking the time to read!
Cheers!
-Joe
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