The following data and charts represent monthly data from January 2019 to November 2022. The analysis is focused mainly on trends from April 2022 to the current month.
In previous months I was looking back to January 2021, however if we look back further into 2019, which was a more "normal" and housing-market-healthy-time (pre-Covid), it can provide a broader perspective on the state of the current market, and that it actually might not be so bad, historically speaking (and perhaps trending back toward a more healthy and balanced market).
1. Average Sales Price
In Snohomish County the Average Sale Price hit a peak in April 2022 at $882,000. In May of 2022 the average home sale prices reflected a decline of 5% ($839,000). The June average sales price declined 7% from the April high to an average sales price of $818,000. The trend continued as expected for July 2022 with an average sales price of $780,000 which was 11.5% below the April high. The September 2022 average sales price ticked up slightly from August to $749,000. For October and November, the downward trend continues with an average sales price of $742,000 and $703,000, respectively. Remember, home sale prices are a lagging indicator, as home sale prices are normally agreed to 30 to 45 days in the past. If financing is required (on average 75% of homes are financed), the closing process normally takes 30 to 45 days. Mortgage interest rates have dipped slightly as of late, so we could see a small uptick in sales activity and prices in December and January data. Seasonality can also be a drag on prices. Normally sales slow around July and really begin dragging October through December.
Overall, I would expect the downward price trend to sustain as homes are still unaffordable for the average worker / salary in our area. This housing market here in Snohomish County (and beyond) is still adjusting and attempting to find that balance between home buyers and sellers. As wages increase (though slightly) and home prices trend down, hopefully this balance is found sooner rather than later, and that we avoid a deep and prolonged recession, as that could be a whole different can of worms (higher unemployment).
The Fed has signaled that their rate of interest raising may slow moving forward (based on the current economic environment and facts/data). This was good news to the stock market, however it hasn't necessarily translated to a significant impact on mortgage interest rates. There is still Fed concern for sustained inflation, thus the Fed funds rate will continue to increase until the Fed is satisfied that they've inflicted enough pain on the economy (higher unemployment and lower / affordable home prices).
2. Average Days on Market
Average Days on Market indicates how many days a house is listed for sale (“on the market”) before an offer is accepted. When Days on Market increases, it indicates home buying demand is softening. This in turn may result in less offers, more buyer contingencies, increased supply, and ultimately, decreasing home prices.
Looking back to January 2019, Average Days on Market was over 40. This was considered to be a healthier and more balanced market. If you're looking to buy, you should be rooting for the below trend to sustain between 30 and 40. For October and November, we're back to that sweet spot where more leverage lies with the buyer. It will be interesting to see if this sustains into next year, or more a seasonality factor.
3. Quantity of Homes For Sale (in MLS)
This metric indicates how many homes are listed for sale within the MLS. It’s also referred to as housing inventory or supply. You can see from the chart that as of approximately May 2022, the number of homes for sale has dramatically increased from last year. The acceleration coincides with mortgage rate increases (see chart 8).
July 2022 saw a peak of 1,200 homes for sale on the MLS. For the current month, November, we've continued the down trend to 673 which is in line with the fall of 2019. The quantity of homes listed for sale is likely due to (1) seasonality and (2) the mortgage lock-in effect.
4. New Listings
The New Listings data can help shed light on the health of our local housing market and whether we're trending toward a more healthy and balanced market relative to housing inventory / supply.
New listings is also influenced by the time of year - the peak season to list a home for sale is generally from about April to June which is clearly evident on the below New Listings chart. For November, we saw a dramatic drop to 326. October was at 548. There is seasonality at play here.
However also consider this - if you're a home seller, and you don't need to sell your home, is this the type of market you would want to sell in? People who are selling likely need to buy another home, and with total housing/ownership costs so high (when financing with a mortgage), many would-be sellers are probably waiting on the sidelines until 2023 to see what mortgage rates do, and in turn, home prices do (see also the mortgage rate lock-in effect)
5. Average Percent of Last List Price
This chart indicates the final sales price of a home over or under the last list price on the MLS. As you can see, Snohomish County hit a peak in March of this year at 115%. This means, on average, in Snohomish County, homes were selling for 15% above the listed price. Example: A home was listed for sale at $700,000 and sold for $805,000 - WOW! Now that was an unhealthy market, at least for home buyers, and the market could not / would not sustain it.
We are now on a downward trend which is indicative of higher mortgage rates and a larger number of homes for sale (increased supply) which causes homes to sit on the market longer.
For August 2022, on average homes are selling for under list price at 96.4%, September at 95.5%, October at 95.4%, and November continues the trend at 95.3%. This is the lowest we've been since at least January 2019.
Home prices are still considerably higher than they were in 2019, so this is another indication of our housing affordability dilemma - with the high mortgage rates and still historically high home prices, the average person or family will need mortgage rates and/or home prices to fall further. See Section 8 below for more on Housing Affordability.
6. Average Shows per Listing
The average number of people physically visiting homes for sale. The numbers are down dramatically from the highs of 2020, 2021 and early 2022.
For September, showings were up slightly from June and July 2022 (average of 6) to 7 showings per listing. For October we dipped down to 6, and for November we dip again to 5 showings on average.
This data illustrates that buyer interest has waned due to home affordability. I mean why go look if you can't afford the home or to move? However seasonality is also at play here, especially as we get into the holiday season.
Further house showing data details for all regions of US available here from ShowingTime.com
7. Percent of Active Listings with Price Drops (Redfin.com)
This chart from Redfin shows the percent of active for sale listings that have incurred price reductions. Price drops happen when a home doesn’t get offers as quickly as expected or needed, and the home owner and Real Estate Agent review the market and seller’s situation to determine if the best option is to reduce the home’s price.
Price drops have been up and down over the last several months. Through the end of September 2022 for all current homes listed for sale (Snohomish County), 11% have had price reductions (this is down from 13% for July). For October, prices cuts have ticked up to 12.1%. As of the end of November, price drops for Snohomish County have decreased significantly to 8.1%. I suspect this is due to Real Estate professionals and home owners having a better grasp on the current resale housing market and are pricing more appropriately and in line with current market conditions.
8. Housing Affordability - Snohomish County
Housing Affordability has been decreasing since the start of 2021. Affordability has worsened recently due to continued high home prices coupled with mortgage interest rates that have doubled from the lows in 2020 and 2021.
The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) is updated quarterly and uses three key variables:
Median Home Prices
Median Household Income
Mortgage payment Cost (and assumes a 20% down payment).
Per the AWB Institute, the HAI is calculated by the Washington Center for Real Estate Research (WCRER) at the University of Washington. The HAI helps illustrate the ability (or inability) of middle-income households to make a mortgage payment on a median priced home.
"Affordable" in the space of this index equates to a household not paying more that 25% of their income toward the mortgage (principal and interest only).
A Housing Affordability Index of 100 is considered "affordable" (and a mortgage payment is exactly 25% of income). Below 100 is considered less affordable (or not affordable as you sink toward 0). Above 100 is considered more affordable.
As can be seen from below, we are on a steep downward trend of worsening affordability. This is not just a local issue, but a state, national, and even worldwide problem.

Last Updated June 2022. Source: AWB Institute
9. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have risen aggressively since the end of 2021 (and even looking back to January 2019). This has significantly affected home affordability due to low housing supply and home prices that remain high, coupled with these rising mortgage rates.
The following trend chart from Mortgage News Daily shows the 30 year fixed mortgage rate from January 2019 to early December 2022.
Elevated rates have been bouncing around the last several months hitting a recent high of about 7.35% October 20th. These 7% rates are the highest in 20 years! Home affordability continues to erode for the average home buyer who needs financing.
It's not known at this point when rates will trend back down to 3 or 4 percent (5% actually sounds pretty good now!). Much will depend on inflation and the Fed's action to battle it with the Federal Funds Rate and how the bond and mortgage markets respond.
Higher mortgage interest rates directly affect home affordability and therefore the housing supply and prices - no doubt a very important metric to keep an eye on if looking to buy, sell, or refinance.

Source: Mortgage News Daily
To gain a broader sense on the health of our local housing market and economy I'm sharing unemployment data along with new single family home construction permits . These data points can show signals and trends on the health of the economy, and ultimately the housing market.
Unemployment
This data is provided monthly by the Washington State Employment Security Department, and has a two month lag. There is no monthly trend data that I can locate for strictly Snohomish County, so I plan to track and create a trend chart that will be maintained in this blog.
From April 2022, each month the unemployment rate has been slowly increasing. According to the Fed, they'd like to see the national unemployment rate to be at least 4%, as they feel this will help to slow the economy and begin curbing inflation.
As of October 2022, Snohomish County Unemployment was at 3.3%
September 2022 = 3.3%, August 2022 = 3.4%, July 2022 = 3.3%, June 2022 = 3.1%, May 2022 = 2.9%, April 2022 = 2.3%)
Source: esd.wa.gov
New Residential Housing Permits
This data is not provided by county, but rather metropolitan area. In the case of Snohomish County, I’m relying on the “Seattle Metro Area” which is Snohomish, King, and Pierce County data. This data has a two month lag. Residential housing permits authorize new housing units to be built, but does not indicate if construction has started, or whether it will ever start, or complete (see below for a national and regional perspective on "Starts" and "Completions").
This data from the US Census Bureau has a two month lag.
Seattle Metro area as of October 2022, new housing permits for Single Family Residential (this is 1 unit, also denoted as "SFR"): 427 permits issued (September 2022 = 459, August 2022 = 611, July 2022 = 564, June 2022 = 649).
Year to date there have been 6,307 SFR permits issued. Total SFR permits issued for Seattle Metro area through October 2022 is the 29th highest (was the 33rd as of September 2022) compared to the other 384 major cities and metro areas monitored.
The top US market for the most New Residential Housing Permits (1 unit) in October 2022 is the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX metro area with 3,226 new housing permits.
For national and regional data and trends on Housing Permits, Starts, and Completions, check out this summary from the US Census Bureau on Monthly New Residential Construction. Source: United States Census Bureau
Additional Reading
For additional reading and market insight, check out the following resources. The data is national, and not localized to the Seattle Metro area. Nevertheless, this is great information to include in a comprehensive analysis to gain a better understanding of the current, and future health of housing markets - local, regional, and national.
Home Mortgage Application (and refinance) data. This weekly survey data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) provides a forward looking indicator on the housing market by examining the number of people applying for home mortgage loans. The numbers are released weekly on Wednesday morning. Tip: Scroll down about halfway on the Mortgage Application Survey page to find the current, as well as previous releases.
NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is a monthly survey based on responses from NAHB member home builders focused on new single-family residential homes. The survey solicits builders' sentiment on the current housing market, as well as their take on the single family housing market looking outward six months. The survey also provides home traffic numbers. The data provides both a national and regional breakout.
That's A Wrap!
I hope this monthly snapshot provides some helpful information and opinion about our local Snohomish County real estate market and economy.
Please let me know in the below comments (or email) if this information is helpful and if you’d like to continue to see it monthly.
If you have any feedback I’d love to hear your thoughts. For those interested, I can also pull data beyond Snohomish County, or drill down by zip code or even neighborhood if you're looking for additional or more specific data.
Thank you for taking the time to read!
Cheers!
-Joe
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