The following data and charts represent monthly data from January 2020 to January 2023. The analysis is focused mainly on trends from April 2022 to the current month.
1. Average Sales Price
In Snohomish County the Average Sale Price hit a peak in April 2022 at $882,000.
Not surprising for January 2023, the downward trend continues with an average sales price of $665,000. This is down from December's average sales price of $678,000 and November's average price of $703,000.
Average sales prices is a lagging indicator. These prices in most cases were agreed to about two months ago (when an offer was accepted). Additionally, the fall and winter months are historically slower and prices tend to decline. We will likely see these lower prices trend down for the next couple of months. I would expect to see March 2023 sales price data trend up as it will reflect sales data from January and February.
2. Average Days on Market
Average Days on Market indicates how many days a house is listed for sale (“on the market”) before an offer is accepted. When Days on Market increases, it indicates home buying demand is softening. This normally result in less offers, more buyer contingencies, increased housing supply, and ultimately, decreasing home prices.
Looking back to January 2019, Average Days on Market was over 40 (considered a healthier and more balanced market). As of January 2023, the average days on market was 45 days!
If you're looking to buy, you should be rooting for the below trend to sustain around 30 to 40. For December 2022, the average days on market was 40. Seasonality is no doubt at play, as December is a slow month for home sales. However, in January, demand tends to pick up, and days on market historically begins to trend down, so I'm a bit surprised we jumped up in January. I suspect we'll see a drop in February. If we don't, it would seem to be a pretty strong indicator we could be in for continued home price declines and buyers being in the drivers seat.
3. Pending Sales
Pending Sales can be a leading indicator of what home sales will be within the next 30 to 60 days (the average time to close on a home once an offer has been accepted). Not all pending sales will close, however on average, 80% make it through closing and become a finalized home sale.
December 2022 Pending Sales for Snohomish County was 294, this is the lowest pending sale amount since prior to 2019. As can be seen from the chart, sale activity is severely impacted by the season - consistently hitting lows in December and January. Pending Sales should begin trending upward in January, and they did. This trend will likely continue upward into April or May.
4. Quantity of Homes For Sale (in MLS)
This metric indicates how many homes are listed for sale within the MLS in Snohomish County. It’s also referred to as housing inventory or supply. You can see from the chart that as of approximately May 2022, the number of homes for sale has dramatically increased from 2021. The acceleration coincides with mortgage rate increases (see chart 8).
We peaked in July 2022 with 1,200 homes for sale on the MLS. For January 2023, we've continued the downward trend to 325 (December was 496 - adjusted from 474 in last months data/blog). The quantity of homes listed for sale is likely due to (1) seasonality and (2) the mortgage lock-in effect. We should see the quantity of homes for sale trend upward as we move out of the holiday season, however this didn't happen as I thought. There are still many potential sellers, sitting on the sidelines perhaps waiting to list until February or March when they hope they can sell for a higher price. However, if they need to move within the same area, they may be waiting until prices become more affordable (which is a catch 22 if they need to sell their home to afford a new one), or mortgage rates decrease (see mortgage lock-in effect).
5. New Listings
The New Listings data can help shed light on the health of our local housing market and whether we're trending toward a more healthy and balanced market relative to housing inventory / supply.
New listings is also influenced by the time of year - the peak season to list a home for sale is generally from about March to June, however we normally see an increase of new home listings starting in January - we've made it through the hectic holidays, and people are ready to start the new year with their resolutions and selling a home!
As can be seen from below chart, we got a nice pop in January to 299. This is up from December 2022 where we saw a dramatic drop to 200 (from November at 326 and October at 548). With the fall and winter of 2022 (and generally speaking) seasonality is a huge factor. Another factor, unique to 2022, home owners (potential sellers) were just not wanting to enter this market due to lack of inventory / options and high mortgage rates. If you're a home seller, and you don't need to sell your home, is this the type of market you would want to sell in? People who sell normally need to buy another home. With total housing/ownership costs so high, many would-be sellers are waiting on the sidelines to see what mortgage rates do in this new year. (see also the mortgage rate lock-in effect)
6. Average Percent of Last List Price
This chart indicates the final sales price of a home over or under the original list price on the MLS. As you can see, Snohomish County hit a peak in March 2022 of 115%. This means, on average, in Snohomish County, homes were selling for 15% above the listed price. Example: A home was listed for sale at $700,000 and sold for $805,000 - WOW! Now that was an unhealthy market, at least for home buyers, and the market could not / would not sustain it.
The downward trend continued through December 2022 due to the higher mortgage rates and affordability issues. However, for January 2023, the trend has been broken, and there was a small tick upward to 94.9% (home are selling for less below the original list price than December 2022).
During October 2022 in Snohomish County, on average, homes sold for under list price at 95.4%, November was 95.3% and December continued the trend at 94.2%, which was under January 2019 (pre-Covid).
Home prices are still considerably higher than they were in 2019, so this is another indication of our housing affordability dilemma - with the high mortgage rates and still historically high home prices, the average person or family will need mortgage rates and/or home prices to fall further. See Section 8 below for more on Housing Affordability.
7. Average Shows per Listing
The average number of people physically visiting and viewing homes for sale. The numbers are down dramatically from the highs of 2020, 2021 and early 2022.
Since fall of 2022, we hovered between six and seven views on average per home which is low, and similar to the numbers at the onset of Covid (April and May 2020).
The recent trend illustrates that buyer interest waned due to home affordability - I mean why go look if you can't afford the home? However, we're now out of the holidays and into the new year, and the trend has been broken (corresponding to increased pending sales), with a sizable jump to ten views on average (up from six in December).
Further house showing data details for all regions of US available here from ShowingTime.com
8. Housing Affordability - Snohomish County
Housing Affordability has been decreasing since the start of 2021. Affordability has worsened recently due to continued high home prices coupled with mortgage interest rates that have doubled from the lows in 2020 and 2021.
The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) is updated quarterly and uses three key variables:
Median Home Prices
Median Household Income
Mortgage payment Cost (and assumes a 20% down payment).
Per the AWB Institute, the HAI is calculated by the Washington Center for Real Estate Research (WCRER) at the University of Washington. The HAI helps illustrate the ability (or inability) of middle-income households to make a mortgage payment on a median priced home.
"Affordable" in the space of this index equates to a household not paying more that 25% of their income toward the mortgage (principal and interest only).
A Housing Affordability Index of 100 is considered "affordable" (and a mortgage payment is exactly 25% of income). Below 100 is considered less affordable (or not affordable as you sink toward 0). Above 100 is considered more affordable.
The latest data from Quarter 3 of 2022 shows a slight improvement in home affordability within Snohomish County (and WA State). This can likely be attributed to decreasing home prices, and perhaps even to growing wages.

Last Updated December 2022. Source: AWB Institute
9. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have risen aggressively since the end of 2021 (and even looking back to January 2019). This has significantly affected home affordability due to low housing supply and home prices that remain high, coupled with these rising mortgage rates.
The following trend chart from Mortgage News Daily shows the 30 year fixed mortgage rate from January 2020 to early February 2023.
Elevated rates have been bouncing around the last several months hitting a high of 7.35% October 20th. The 7% rates were the highest in 20 years! Fortunately we've trended down and over the last few months, and bouncing around the low to mid-6% range.
It's not known at this point when (or if) rates will trend back down to 3 or 4 percent (5% actually sounds pretty good now!). Much will depend on inflation and the Fed's action to battle it with the Federal Funds Rate and how the bond and mortgage markets react and respond.
Higher mortgage interest rates directly affect home affordability and therefore housing supply and prices - no doubt a very important metric to keep an eye on if looking to buy, sell, or refinance.
Average mortgage rate trend data for 30 year fixed mortgage from January 1, 2020 through February 3, 2023:

Source: Mortgage News Daily
To gain a broader sense on the health of our local housing market and economy, following is some data and perspective on unemployment data along with new single family home construction permits. Such data can show signals and trends on the health of the economy, and ultimately the housing market.
Unemployment
This data is provided monthly by the Washington State Employment Security Department, and has a two month lag.
Since April 2022 unemployment increased, but stabilized in through fall and winter into the low 3's. For the most current data, December 2022, the unemployment rate ticked back up slightly to 3.2% (from 3.1%).
According to the Fed, they want to see the national unemployment rate reach at least 4%, as they feel this will help to slow the economy and help curb inflation. However this does not mean the Snohomish County Unemployment will hit that mark.
As of December 2022, Snohomish County Unemployment was at 3.2%
November 2022 = 3.1%, October 2022 = 3.3%, September 2022 = 3.3%, August 2022 = 3.4%, July 2022 = 3.3%, June 2022 = 3.1%, May 2022 = 2.9%, April 2022 = 2.3%)
Source: esd.wa.gov
New Residential Housing Permits
This data is not provided by county, but rather metropolitan area. In the case of Snohomish County, I’m relying on the “Seattle Metro Area” which is Snohomish, King, and Pierce County data. This data has a two month lag. Residential housing permits authorize new housing units to be built, but does not indicate if construction has started, or whether it will ever start, or complete (see below for a national and regional perspective on "Starts" and "Completions").
Data from the US Census Bureau has a two month lag.
Seattle Metro area as of December 2022, new housing permits for Single Family Residential (this is 1 unit, also denoted as "SFR"): 364 permits issued (November 2022 = 357, October 2022 = 427, September 2022 = 459, August 2022 = 611, July 2022 = 564, June 2022 = 649).
Year to date there have been 7,037 SFR permits issued. Total SFR permits issued for Seattle Metro area through December 2022 is the 27th highest (was the 30th as of November 2022) compared to the other 384 major cities and metro areas monitored.
The top US market for the most New Residential Housing Permits (1 unit) in December 2022 is the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX metro area with 2,188 new housing permits.
For national and regional data and trends on Housing Permits, Starts, and Completions, check out this summary from the US Census Bureau on Monthly New Residential Construction. Source: United States Census Bureau
Additional Reading
For additional reading and market insight, check out the following resources. The data is national, and not localized to the Seattle Metro area. Nonetheless, this is great information to consider in a comprehensive analysis to gain a better understanding of the current, and future health of housing markets - locally, regionally, and nationally.
Home Mortgage Application (and refinance) data. This weekly survey data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) provides a forward looking indicator on the housing market by examining the number of people applying for home mortgage loans. The numbers are released weekly on Wednesday morning. Tip: Scroll down about halfway on the Mortgage Application Survey page to find the current, as well as previous releases.
NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is a monthly survey based on responses from NAHB member home builders focused on new single-family residential homes. The survey solicits builders' sentiment on the current housing market, as well as their take on the single family housing market looking outward six months. The survey also provides home traffic numbers. The data provides both a national and regional breakout.
That's A Wrap!
I hope this monthly snapshot provides some helpful and relevant information and opinion about our local Snohomish County real estate market and economy.
Please let me know in the below comments (or email) if this information is helpful and if you’d like to continue to see it monthly.
If you have any feedback I’d love to hear your thoughts. For those interested, I can also pull data beyond Snohomish County, or drill down by zip code or even neighborhood if you're looking for additional or more specific data.
Thank you for taking the time to read!
Cheers!
-Joe
Comments