The following data and charts represent Monthly data from January 2021 to August 2022.
1. Average Sales Price
In Snohomish County the Average Sale Price hit a peak in April 2022 ($882,000). In May of 2022 the average home sale prices reflected a decline of 5% ($839,000). The June average sales price declined 7% from the April high to an average sales price of $818,000. The trend continued as expected for July 2022 with an average sales price of $780,000 which was 11.5% below the April high. August 2022 numbers reflect the continued downward trend with an average sales price of $756,000.
Historically, home prices trend upward from April to July, however due to the fast paced mortgage rate increases (see chart 9) home affordability was abruptly impacted (see chart 8). This in turn is driving the price decreases we've witnessed from April 2022 to August 2022 (as the Fed was intending).
Seasonality is currently at play as less homes are listed for sale late summer into fall and winter. Further, due to low home affordability, and therefore low buyer demand, sellers are choosing to not sell (at least those that don't need to) until they must, or mortgage rates decrease (i.e. home affordability improves).
I would expect the downward home price trend to continue as homes are still unaffordable for the average worker / salary. This housing market here in Snohomish County is correcting, and likely on it's way to become more balanced, and therefore healthy (or at least healthier). Currently we are in the midst of a correction, and not a crash.
Until the fed stabilizes or lowers the fed rate, and mortgage rates react accordingly, we're likely to see continued downward pressure on home prices.
2. Average Days on Market
An important metric to watch in gauging the current housing market, and where it may be headed (vs. where it's been). It indicates how many days a house is listed for sale (“on the market”) before an offer is accepted. When Days on Market increases, it indicates home buying demand is softening. This in turn may result in less offers, more buyer contingencies, increased supply, and ultimately, decreasing home prices.
For August data, I've opened up the historic view to January 2019. This shows where Average Days on Market tended to lie prior to COVID (March 2020) when the housing market was thought to be more balanced and healthy.
3. Quantity of Homes For Sale (in MLS)
This metric shows how many homes are listed for sale within the MLS. It’s also referred to as housing inventory or supply. You can see from the chart that as of approximately May 2022, the number of homes for sale has dramatically increased from last year. The acceleration coincides with mortgage rate increases (see chart 8).
As of August 2022 there are 900 homes listed for sale, a decrease from July, but still up considerably from the low of December 2021, and even higher than 2019.
4. New Listings
The New Listings data can help shed some light on the health of our local housing market and if we're trending toward a more healthy and balanced market relative to housing inventory / supply.
New listings is also influenced by the time of year - the peak season to list a home for sale is generally from April to July.
Another factor to consider, and that is likely influencing the New Listings downward trend (in addition to seasonality) - if you're a home seller, and you don't need to sell your home, is this the type of market you would want to sell in? People who sell will likely need to buy another home, and with total housing/ownership costs (when financing with a mortgage) extremely high (historically speaking), many potential sellers may be waiting on the sidelines until at least next spring.
5. Average Percent of Last List Price
This chart indicates the amount final sales price of a home over last listed price on the MLS. As you can see, Snohomish County hit a peak in about March of this year at 115%, which means on average, in Snohomish County, homes were selling for 15% above the listed price. So if a Home was listed for sale at $700,000 it actually sold for $805,000. We are now on a downward trend which is indicative of higher mortgage rates and a larger number of homes for sale (increased supply) which causes homes to sit on the market longer.
For August 2022, on average homes are selling for slightly under list price.
6. ShowingTime Index
Data from ShowingTime indicates the number of people physically visiting homes for sale to view. The below chart is the West region only. As can be seen, it's down dramatically from the highs, and further from what was a low July 2022. The West continues to be the lowest amongst all the US regions. This further illustrates that buyer interest has waned due to home affordability.

Full data details for all regions of US available here from ShowingTime.com
7. Percent of Active Listings with Price Drops (Redfin.com)
This chart from Redfin shows the percent of active for sale listings that have incurred price reductions. Price drops happen when a home doesn’t get offers as quickly as expected or needed, and the home owner and agent review the market and seller’s situation to determine if the best option is to reduce the home’s price.
Price drops (or cuts) have been up and down over the last few months. Through the end of August 2022 for all current homes listed for sale, 12% have had price reductions (this is down from 13% for July).
8. Housing Affordability - Snohomish County
Housing Affordability has been decreasing since the start of 2021. Affordability has worsened recently due to continued high home prices coupled with mortgage interest rates that have doubled from the lows in 2020 and 2021.
The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) is updated quarterly and uses three key variables:
Median Home Prices
Median Household Income
Mortgage payment Cost (and assumes a 20% down payment).
Per the AWB Institute, the HAI is calculated by the Washington Center for Real Estate Research (WCRER) at the University of Washington. The HAI helps illustrate the ability (or inability) of middle-income households to make a mortgage payment on a median priced home.
"Affordable" in the space of this index equates to a household not paying more that 25% of their income toward the mortgage (principal and interest only).
A Housing Affordability Index of 100 is considered "affordable" (and a mortgage payment is exactly 25% of income). Below 100 is considered less affordable (or not affordable as you sink toward 0). Above 100 is considered more affordable.
As can be seen from below, we are on a steep downward trend of worsening affordability. This not just a local issue, but a state, national, and even worldwide problem.

Last Updated June 2022. Source: AWB Institute
Lastly, to put things in perspective, and perhaps make you feel a bit better about the current lack of affordable housing here in Snohomish County, the United States is actually considered affordable when compared to other major metros within eight different nations.
Most Affordable Housing Markets: Pittsburgh, PA Oklahoma City, OK Rochester, NY Edmonton, Canada St. Louis, MO | Least Affordable Housing Markets: Hong Kong, China Sydney, Australia Vancouver, Canada San Jose, CA (US) Melbourne, Australia |
Source: News Nation
9. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have risen aggressively since the end of 2021. This has significantly affected home affordability. We’re now witnessing the impact of the quick rise on home prices in Snohomish County and beyond.
The following trend chart from Mortgage News Daily shows the 30 year fixed mortgage rate from August 2021 through August 2022. You can see that toward the end of December 2021 there was an acceleration in the rise of mortgage rates.
Rates have been bouncing around a bit over the last couple months hitting a high of nearly 6.5% in June, and have been hovering between 5 and 6% much of July. Rates have steadily increased to 6% over the last couple weeks of August 2022.
It's not known at this point if, or when rates will trend back down to 3 or 4 percent. Much will depend on inflation and the Fed's action to battle it with the Federal Funds Rate.
Higher mortgage interest rates directly affect home affordability and therefore the housing supply and prices - no doubt a very important data point to keep an eye on if looking to buy, sell, or refinance.

Source: Mortgage News Daily
To gain a broader sense on the health of our local housing market and economy I'm sharing unemployment data along with new single family home construction permits . These data points can show signals and trends on the health of the economy, and ultimately the housing market.
Unemployment
This data is provided monthly by the Washington State Employment Security Department, and has a 2 month lag. There is no monthly trend data that I can locate for strictly Snohomish County, so I plan to track and create a trend chart that will be maintained in this blog.
As of July 2022, Snohomish County Unemployment was at 3.3% (June 2022 = 3.1%, May 2022 = 2.9%, April 2022 = 2.3%). Source: esd.wa.gov
New Residential Housing Permits
This data is not provided by county, but rather metropolitan area. In the case of Snohomish County, I’m relying on the “Seattle Metro Area” which is essentially Snohomish, King, and Pierce County data. This data has a two month lag. Residential housing permits authorize new housing units to be built, but does not indicate if construction has started, or whether it will ever start, or complete.
Seattle Metro area as of July 2022, new housing permits for Single Family Residential (this is 1 unit, also denoted as "SFR"): 564 permits issued (June 2022 = 649 SFR).
Year to date (Jan to July 2022) there have been 4,616 SFR permits issued. Total SFR permits issued for Seattle Metro area through July is the 28th highest compared to the other 384 major cities and metro areas monitored.
For perspective, the top US market for the most New Residential Housing Permits (1 unit) in July 2022 is the Dallas - Fort Worth - Arlington, TX metro area with 3,387 new housing permits. Source: United States Census Bureau
That's A Wrap!
I hope these charts (and my opinions) provide you with some useful information and insight about our local real estate market and economy. Please let me know in the below comments (or email) if this information is helpful and if you’d like to see it continue monthly.
If you have any feedback on the content here I’d love to hear your thoughts. I can also pull data beyond Snohomish County, or drill down by zip code if you're looking for additional or more specific data.
Thank you for taking the time to read!
Cheers!
-Joe
Comments