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Snohomish County Housing Market Performance Metrics

Writer's picture: Joe FrankJoe Frank

Updated: Jun 23, 2022

What an unbelievable housing market we’re in the midst of. Where will it go from here? Nobody really knows, but my clients, as well as friends and family continue to ask how our local Snohomish County housing market is holding up, and where it may be headed.


Since this concern is a recurring theme, I thought it would be helpful to provide a monthly housing market update for Snohomish County so my clients, friends, and family, as well as others out there searching for more localized, Snohomish County housing metrics can stay informed.


I will update this data at least monthly and periodically (or per requests) I may focus on more localized areas within Snohomish County, such as specific zip codes. Also, to ensure we maintain a good perspective, on occasion I’ll zoom out and examine other Washington State counties, as well as other counties, cities, and zips from around the US.


Please keep in mind that most real estate data has a one month delay in reporting (a “lagging indicator”) which means it was current as of last month. Therefore it does not give us a true, or “real-time” picture on performance and health in the current month. However, such data can demonstrate a trend and where our local market may be headed.




I’ll focus my write ups on six key housing data metrics to gauge the current status of our local Snohomish County housing market.


1. Average Sales Price: This chart examines the monthly trend relative to what a home actually sold for. The data looks back approximately 18 months. It’s updated monthly. For this month (see below), we are in June, however the most recent data is from May. This is a lagging indicator. This is true of the following metrics as well.


2. Average Days on Market: This chart reflects the average number of days that a home is on the market (“active” within the MLS) before it has an accepted offer and goes pending (or sold if cash).


3. Quantity of Homes For Sale (in MLS): This chart shows the number of homes that are for sale and available on the market. Remember this is last month’s data, so not current data, but you can still see the trend of more homes being listed each month.


4. Average Percent of Last List Price: This chart, and corresponding y-axis percentage, illustrates average home sales prices above (or below) the listed price – at a value of “108%”, the home sold for 8% over list price. So for example, if a home was listed at $600,000, and had a value of 108% of last list price, it would equate to the home selling for $648,000 ($600,000 x 1.08).


5. Percent of Active Listings with Price Drops: This weekly metric from Redfin depicts the percentage of active listings in Snohomish County where the listing price has been reduced (i.e. home owner and agent decided to decrease the home’s list price).


6. Mortgage Rates: This chart will be provided monthly from Mortgage News Daily. Mortgage rates tend to be the main driver of home prices and affordability. We’re experiencing the incredible home value increases due to historically low mortgage rates since the Pandemic started. Now that mortgage rates have risen over the last 6 months, we’re seeing a direct correlation in slowing home price growth and increased days on market and inventory. Mortgage rates do not directly affect cash buyers who normally make up about 20% of the market.


Criteria used for charts 1 thru 4 = Snohomish County only, residential homes (no condos, land or vacant lots), lot size of 0.5 acre or less, new construction and waterfront homes are excluded. Time frame is approximately 18 months. Data is monthly (each data point represents one month of data). Average values are used (rather than median). All data is complements of InfoSparks from ShowingTime.com (pulled from my local MLS - NWMLS). Chart 5 is from Redfin data center (many more housing market metrics here). Chart 6 is from Mortgage News Daily (other mortgage and housing news and data available here).


To gain a broader sense on the health of our local housing market, I’ll pull in unemployment data along with new single family home construction permits. These data points do not update monthly, but signal trends on the health of the economy, and ultimately the housing market.


1. Unemployment: This data is provided monthly by the Washington State Employment Security Department, and has a 2 month lag. There is no monthly trend data that I can locate by month for strictly Snohomish County, so I’ll begin to track and create a trend chart. I may also do this for surrounding counties.


2. New Residential Housing Permits: This data is not provided by county, but rather city or metropolitan area. In the case of Snohomish County, I’m relying on the “Seattle Metro Area” which is essentially Snohomish, King, and Pierce County data. This data has a two month lag. Residential housing permits authorize new housing units to be built, but does not indicate if construction has started, or whether it will ever start.


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