Housing affordability has been a hot topic in Snohomish and Skagit counties - and for good reason. If you’re a buyer, renter, seller, or just someone curious about the local real estate market, understanding what’s ahead can help you make smarter moves.
Let’s break down the key factors shaping housing affordability in 2025 and what they might mean for you.
1. Jobs and Paychecks: What’s Happening with Income?
In Snohomish County, many residents work in tech and aerospace jobs in the Seattle area, while Skagit County has its roots in agriculture, manufacturing, and small businesses.
What we’re seeing: Wages are expected to grow modestly, but inflation could make that extra income feel like less. Plus, layoffs in some industries might add some uncertainty.
We're in the midst of layoffs at Boeing - they're in the process of laying off 17% of their global workforce. It's estimated approximately 2,200 will be in WA state.
The other big unknown is AI (Artificial Intelligence) and what it could mean to employment across many industries, and not just tech. Many analysts predict it could actually increase employment, but others aren't so optimistic. It won't likely impact us dramatically in 2025, but it's an employment variable to be aware of and monitor closely.
According to an article in the Harvard Business Review, "Although still in its early stages, gen AI’s impact on online labor markets is already becoming discernible, suggesting potential shifts in long-term labor market dynamics that could bring both challenges and opportunities."
The silver lining: In the big picture, as the economy steadies, Snohomish and Skagit counties could see more stable and consistent wage growth, which would help with home affordability.
👉 Want to see an even bigger picture? Check out the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Washington Employment Security Department.
2. Home Prices: Will They Cool Down?
Snohomish and Skagit counties have been more affordable alternatives to King County, but increasing demand has been pushing prices up for years.
The trend: As of June 2024, Snohomish County’s housing inventory jumped 41% from the previous year, according to Redfin. Skagit County also saw a significant rise in available homes, up 45%. This should help prices level off in 2025. For full details, check out the data from Redfin here.
What to watch: New housing developments could add even more supply, especially in suburban and rural areas, further stabilizing home prices.
3. Mortgage Rates: The Not-So-Fun Math
Let’s be real - mortgage rates are one of the biggest pieces of the affordability puzzle.
The deal: After peaking in 2023, rates are expected to stabilize around 6% in 2025. That’s better than recent highs but still a stretch compared to the low rates we got spoiled with during the pandemic.
What can help: First-time buyer programs and other local assistance might soften the blow for some buyers.
👉 Curious about latest mortgage rates? Check out Mortgage News Daily for the latest rates and insights.
4. Cost of Living: The Inflation Roller Coaster
Inflation touches everything - from groceries to gas to property taxes - and it definitely impacts how much you can afford.
What’s happening: Inflation is slowing down, which is good news, but rising costs for utilities, property taxes, and insurance could continue to squeeze homeowners.
Skagit vs. Snohomish: Skagit County typically has a lower cost of living, but both counties are feeling the pinch as housing values go up.
👉 Keep tabs on inflation with the U.S. Inflation Calculator or cost of living data from Numbeo.
5. Policies and Programs: Help Could Be on the Way
Local leaders in both counties are stepping up with policies that will hopefully tackle housing challenges down the road.
Big moves: Relaxed zoning laws and incentives for affordable housing have been enacted or are in the works. These should add more homes to the market and ease housing price pressures.
For example, Snohomish County as of March 2022 offers the ability to build Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) on their property.
Skagit County has their "Home Consortium" project to help with affordable housing - mainly targeting low income families. You can learn more here.
Extra help: Programs for first-time buyers and low-income families could make homeownership more accessible.
6. Population Growth: More People equals More Housing Demand (and higher prices)
Snohomish and Skagit counties keep drawing people in - whether for jobs, a slower pace of life, the natural beauty or a little of all three.
The numbers: Many Snohomish residents commute to Seattle, while Skagit offers a more rural vibe. Either way, migration to these counties continues to keep housing demand high.
What it means: Expect demand to stay strong, especially in areas with great amenities (hospitals, schools, shopping, outdoor adventures, etc) and job access.
For population growth trends, check out this report from the University of Virginia that examines population growth projections through 2050 for each of the 50 states. Washington State is number eight for expected population growth from 2020 to 2030 (as of 7/22/24). Much of that growth will likely be in Snohomish and Skagit Counties.
I always find migration trend data from Redfin fascinating. It's not actual data relative to physical moves, but based on search data conducted by Redfin users who are looking for a new area to move to.
Mount Vernon, WA Migration Trend Data (Skagit County migration Data unavailable)
So, What Does This All Mean for 2025?
If you’re BUYING: More inventory and stable prices could work in your favor, but higher mortgage rates and inflation will still require careful monitoring, and potentially budgeting.
If you’re SELLING: Demand is still strong, but pricing your home just right will be key to standing out and achieving your price goal. The time of year to sell is also an important consideration.
If you’re INVESTING: Keep an eye on affordable housing developments and rental opportunities - there could be some great options. Finding home deals listed on the MLS has become increasingly difficult, if not impossible over the last few years. Off-market deals are your best option in this current environment.
Wrapping It Up
Housing affordability in Snohomish and Skagit counties is all about balance.
With more homes hitting the market, what looks to be stabilizing mortgage rates, and local efforts to boost home affordability, there’s hope for a brighter 2025 and beyond for those looking to purchase their first home or move up to that next home.
That said, challenges like inflation and strong demand aren’t going away entirely, or any time soon. Further, the unknowns of how President-elect Trump and his new administration will affect the economy must be watched closely once he takes office in 2025. It's unclear at this point how his stance on tariffs, housing, and deportation will dictate housing supply and demand, and thus affordability.
Want to chat about what this all means for you and your unique situation? Reach out today, and let’s find the best way to navigate this exciting (and sometimes tricky) housing market together!
Thanks for reading!
-Joe
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